Energy system and resource market model "MultiMod"
by DIW Berlin, NTNU Trondheim
Daniel Huppmann, Ruud Egging
The energy system and resource market model "MultiMod" is a large-scale representation of the supply and demand of fossil fuels and renewable energy sources. It captures endogenous substitution between fuels, infrastructure constraints and endogenous investment (e.g., pipeline capacity, power generation technologies), as well as market power by producers of fossil fuels in a unified framework.
The mathematical framework of the MultiMod model is a dynamic Generalized Nash Equilibrium (GNE) derived from individual players' profit maximisation problems. The formulation is generic and flexible, so that the supply chain of any number of fossil and renewable fuels can be modelled. The framework includes seasonality and allows for a detailed infrastructure representation and a comprehensive transformation sector. Investment in infrastructure (transportation, seasonal storage, transformation) is determined endogenously in the model according to the respective player’s inter-temporal optimisation problem. Furthermore, substitution between different energy carriers on the final demand side is endogenous. Modelling co-production of fuels (e.g. crude oil and associated gas) is possible, as well as a flexible setup of transformation units (multiple inputs, multiple outputs). By formulating the model as an equilibrium problem derived from non-cooperative game theory, the model can incorporate Cournot market power by individual suppliers as well as distinct discount rates by various players concerning their investment.
The current framework is an open-loop perfect foresight model. A stochastic version of the model is under development at NTNU Trondheim. This will allow for consideration of uncertainty and distinct risk profiles for individual players along the supply chain, including investment by consumers in energy efficiency.
For the model description paper, a database representing the global energy system was compiled and used for scenario analysis (Huppmann & Egging, 2014). New datasets or variations on the initial data base are currently under development within specific research projects:
- Focus on US domestic conventional crude and shale oil infrastructure (lead: Johns Hopkins University)
- Focus on Chinese coal policies (lead: Tsinghua University)
- Focus on the global crude oil market and refinery investment (lead: DIW Berlin/TU Berlin)
The model is formulated and solved as a Mixed Complementarity Problem (MCP) and implemented in GAMS, using MS Access and MS Excel for data processing and output reports. The code package includes a number of auxiliary routines and algorithms that greatly facilitate the compilation of the data set as well as calibration of the model.
Based on GAMS. Using MS Access, MS Excel for data processing.
Website / Documentation
Not Open Source
Not directly downloadable
Some input data shipped
Planned to open up further in the future
||Model type and solution approach
| Model class
|| Equilibrium model
|| Oil, Gas, Coal, Electricity, Renewables, Industry, Transport, Residential/Commercial
|| Renewables, Conventional Generation
|| dispatch, investment
| Geographic Resolution
|| Europe by region, North America by country, rest of world by region
| Time resolution
|| Multi year
| Network coverage
|| transmission, net transfer capacities
| Model type
|| Generalized Nash Equilibrium (GNE) model formulated as a Mixed Complementarity Model (MCP)
| Computation time
|| 600 minutes
| Uncertainty modeling
|| Not covered (yet)
| Suited for many scenarios / monte-carlo
Daniel Huppmann & Ruud Egging (2014). Market power, fuel substitution and infrastructure - A large-scale equilibrium model of global energy markets. Energy, 75, 483–500.
Reports produced using the model
Currently used within EMF 31 (http://emf.stanford.edu)
Example research questions
Scenarios regarding North American shale gas development, Russian supply disruption to Europe, evaluation of renewable support measures (feed-in tariffs vs. emission quota)
Model variations (forks) used for other research projects by international partners (see short description for details)
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